Countdown to GF-5
(Continued)

Another thing to expect will be the introduction of lighter and lighter motor oil grades. According to Sciacchitano, the current market for passenger car motor oil weights and grades is:
• 41 percent 5W-30
• 27 percent 10W-30
• 14 percent 5W-20
• 7 percent 10W-40
• 4 percent 5W-40/0W-40
• 3 percent 20W-50
• 4 percent other weights/grades

Fully 55 percent of the motor oil market is comprised of 5W-30 or 5W-20 products, a trend that Sciacchitano said will only accelerate as automakers move to lighter and lighter motor oils in an effort to eke every last bit of fuel economy out of their engines.

Sciacchitano said she expects products meeting the GF-5 specification to be available in grades of: 0W-20, 0W-30, 5W-20, 5W-30 and (thanks to Chrysler) 10W-30.

“(Some) OEMs will recommend lighter viscosity oils,” she said.

However, don’t expect to see all automakers recommending 5W-20 anytime soon. “There’s a line of demarcation with the OEMs. Some want the best oil-derived fuel economy they can get, and they get that with lower viscosity oils like 0W-20 and 5W-20,” McCollum said. “However, OEMs that want to garner against wear — that don’t want durability issues, especially as they lengthen oil change intervals — will use thicker oils like 5W-30 and 10W-30.”

Though the initial license date of GF-5 is October 1, for most automakers that will be too late to see widespread introduction of GF-5 products into their 2011 model lineup.

“Most new 2011 engines will not be factory filled with GF-5, but most 2012 engines will be,” Sciacchitano said.

The GF-5 specification will have its biggest impact after Oct. 1, 2011, when licensing for the GF-4 specification ends. GF-5 will be accompanied by the American Petroleum Institute’s SN specification. As part of API’s Engine Oil Licensing and Certification System, a voluntary program that defines, certifies and monitors engine oil performance, the new SN and SN Resource Conserving (SN-RC) specifications will begin around the same time licensing for GF-5 begins.

One issue that has not come up much with GF-5 is that of backward compatibility. During the development of the GF-4 specification, it was widely whispered that meeting the performance characteristics requested by automakers would result in a product unable to meet the protection needs of older engines. Fortunately for the oil change industry, such was not the case, and all parties involved agree that GF-5 will be fully backward compatible with older vehicles.

“GF-5 will be fully backward compatible, and will also address the needs of 80 percent of new vehicles built after 2011,” Sciacchitano said.

At the end of the day, most lube operators have one question: What will GF-5 products cost?

While it’s difficult to predict with any certainty, as different motor oil marketers will meet the GF-5 specification — which, as McCollum reminds, is the minimum level of performance all parties involved could agree on — in different ways, the tougher specifications will require better, and more costly, base oils and additives packages. That said, Sciacchitano predicted motor oil installers and consumers could expect to see price differences of around 10 percent for GF-5 products vis-à-vis GF-4 products.

The good news is that the GF-5 specification should stick around through at least 2015, but there’s little doubt that automakers and motor oil marketers are already thinking ahead to a possible GF-6 specification for the second half of this decade.

“If they haven’t already, automakers will soon begin to think about GF-6 or whatever requirements they will need in the next generation of motor oil,” McCollum said. “The OEMs didn’t get everything they wanted with GF-5, so I expect they’ll come back to the table with a new list of things they would like to see in a motor oil.”

And though a hypothetical GF-6 would certainly represent both an increase in capabilities and cost over the soon-to-be-launched GF-5, the alternative is not something lube operators want to consider.

“At this point, the funding for developing new engine tests going forward is uncertain,” Sciacchitano said. “That makes any GF-6 category uncertain, as well.”

If automakers and motor oil marketers are unable to agree on a single specification — or, if other automakers follow General Motors’ lead and develop their own proprietary specification like dexos — it could lead to a splintering of the motor oil market, a situation similar to that in Europe, where most OEMs have their own unique specifications, which means installers have to stock many more types of motor oil.

“There’s a definite concern on the marketers’ part (about that occurring), but we’re unanimous that we don’t want to see a Euro-style, multi-divergent category where we have to develop a unique product for each OEM,” McCollum said. “Once you start complicating a category and introducing a ‘GM oil’ or a ‘Ford oil’ or a ‘Chrysler oil,’ you can get into situations where cross- or misapplications occur more frequently. It can easily get out of hand.

“Marketers will continue to work for a ubiquitous minimum standard that all or a majority of the automakers will agree to.”

Luckily, the installed market has many years before having to worry about a hypothetical GF-6. What’s for sure is that GF-5 is on the horizon, and products meeting that much-improved specification will soon be filling their bulk tanks.

“As a technologist, the changing of a category is exciting,” McCollum said. “It pushes the envelope. GF-5 is a better product in many ways, and at the end of the day it is the end customer who will be the winner in this process.”

Back
[ 1 ] [ 2 ]

[Printer-friendly version]