Operators, especially those smaller independent shops, should be running calculations on how much they are willing to pay for oils and identify who will sell those oils to them at that price. 

If they continue to drag their feet, “the smaller operators are in serious trouble because we think Valvoline and Jiffy Lube are relatively in weak spots because they are aligned with particular brands, but if they navigate this in a more crafty manner than other operators, that is really going to be an issue for those other operators with thin margins who don’t have a lot of room for error,” says Nate Chenenko, principal at the management consulting firm Ducker Carlisle.

“I’m pretty surprised, for as much talk as there has been on this topic, there’s remarkably little action. I get that raising your prices to customers, that moment has not yet come, but the moment has long passed that you should have stocked up. And it is definitely the time to figure out what you are prepared to pay. 

“Even if you’re not seeing a shortage yet, when it happens, what are you going to do?” 

Costa Kapothanasis, president of Costa Oil, tells NOLN that his company was in contact with its oil supplier, Chevron, early and began putting together a strategy to avoid going under allocation or missing orders shortly after production at Shell’s Pearl gas-to-liquids facility in Qatar was halted in mid-March. 

To stave off supply shortages, Costa Oil has begun to stock up on synthetic blend oils again after switching to exclusively using fully synthetic oils in 2025. Kapothanasis says his company is not under allocations currently, but after weathering the COVID-19 pandemic, he has learned that it’s important to have as many available options as possible if it becomes necessary to pivot. 

“That was the big takeaway from COVID,” Kapothanasis says. “There were so many people with their head in the sand and pretending it wasn’t happening. And then, you know, a lot of people went out of business.  

“History doesn’t necessarily repeat, but it definitely rhymes. There’s a lot you could take away from what happened in 2020 and apply it to now to be more prepared for whatever situation.” 

Jim Ripper, owner of a Strickland Brothers franchise in Beaufort, South Carolina, says his shop recently added about $3 in surcharges per oil change to cover rising costs. He has not yet faced allocations, but has been told they are coming, likely starting with his next order. 

Ripper says he was told by his supplier, Reladyne, to expect an increase of up to $1.75 per gallon for synthetic blend and $3 per gallon for full synthetics. Synthetic supplies are tightening, so additional increases could follow. In turn, Ripper plans to keep his prices for oil changes the same, but make adjustments to surcharges as needed. 

More Online

For an extended version of this article, as well as ongoing coverage of how the Middle East conflict is impacting quick lube operators, visit NOLN.net.