AAPEX 2025 | Pinch on Discretionary Consumer Spending Hitting Vehicle Maintenance Services

Quick lube shops are one example of an industry being impacted by a shift toward do-it-yourself behaviors among consumers, Nathan Shipley, Circana executive director and industry analyst, told AAPEX attendees in a session presented on Wednesday in Las Vegas.

Five years ago, Shipley said, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic left many vehicle owners with extra free time to tackle personal projects, such as home improvement and vehicle maintenance. The shift was aided by a rise in work-from-home arrangements.

At the time, the cost difference between DIY oil changes and professional service was negligible, Shipley said. Since then, however, rising labor costs have widened that gap, prompting many vehicle owners—including higher-income individuals not normally associated with DIY—to handle maintenance themselves.

A recent Circana poll found that 30% of drivers said they have switched to do-it-yourself oil changes, with 21% saying the move was aimed at saving money. Shipley said the percentage of drivers who have actually made that switch in practice is likely not that high.

“But (the survey data) is definitely an indicator of consumer mind-set,” he added.

The trend reflects a growing “trade down” mentality among consumers, who are looking to save money without sacrificing product quality. Trading down includes both consumers who buy premium products for DIY vehicle maintenance vs. professional service, as well as those who shift from premium to lower-tier products.

In general, Circana data presented by Shipley on Wednesday painted a picture of discretionary income for consumers being squeezed, with the government shutdown exacerbating that trend. Looking at the long term, the firm has found that since 2019, food prices have increased by 35%, while wages have increased by 25%. That 10% gap has directly affected consumers’ discretionary spending.

It’s not just oil change businesses being challenged. Beyond vehicle maintenance businesses, vehicle appearance care services are also facing adversity. Nearly half of respondents surveyed by Circana said they have changed how they maintain their vehicle’s exterior, washing cars less frequently, doing it themselves, or eliminating professional services entirely.

While convenience remains important for many, the broader trend demonstrates an effort by consumers to reduce their spending by taking on more vehicle care personally and/or cut back on non-essential services, Shipley said.