Despite higher incentives, analysts expect auto sales in the U.S. to be lower this month than last year, reports Forbes.

A joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData estimates around 1.1 million cars and trucks to be sold in January 2024, a decrease of about 1.5% from January 2023. A separate forecast from S&P Global Mobility supplied similar predictions as well.

January is historically a slower month for vehicle sales, with incentives typically being lower than they are in December. Incentives did certainly decrease between December 2023 and January 2024, with the average incentive per vehicle falling by $287 to $2,346, according to President of J.D. Power’s Data and Analytics Division Thomas King.

However, compared to this same time a year ago, incentives are up by 74.2%, but this January is still on track to perform worse than last year, signaling a lack of consumer demand. Analysts are predicting that auto sales will see only a small increase in 2024 compared with what was reported in 2023.

Recent research from Cox Automotive displayed strong vehicle sales throughout 2023 with an 11% increase from 2022–although the industry has still not returned to the peak it reached in 2019.